FOR the near term, South Africa’s maize exports will have to aim for Far East markets and the broader southern African region — excluding Zimbabwe, says Wandile Sihlobo, agricultural economist at Agbiz.
This follows the ban on maize imports imposed by that country at the end of August in order to support local farmers, who are having a bumper season.
“This comes on the back of improved domestic production in the country, leading the regulators to believe that, at least for the near term, there are sufficient supplies and no need for imports.
“This is also an effort to protect the farmers that the government has supported with inputs at the start of the season,” says Sihlobo. South Africa exports about three million tonnes of maize every year, of which about 18 percent typically goes to Zimbabwe, says Sihlobo. He is not particularly concerned about the temporary ban, saying later in the season Zimbabwe may return to the market and import.
“It is also worth highlighting that Zimbabwe might not keep the ban for long. We are doubtful that the country has sufficient maize supplies for the entire marketing year. We believe that there may be a need for maize imports later in the season.
“This is because Zimbabwe’s 2024/25 maize production is projected at 1,3 million tonnes, according to data from the Pretoria-based unit of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). This is just more than twice the output from the previous season, which was a drought period.
“Still, it is not sufficient to cover the country’s annual maize needs of about 2 million tonnes, potentially leaving an import gap of around 700 000 tonnes.” Reuters reports that, in 2023/24, Zimbabwe’s maize production fell to 800 000 tonnes, from 2,3 million tonnes two years earlier, owing to the severe drought affecting the region.
South Africa’s maize production was also dented. Sihlobo says in the last marketing year, South Africa supplied nearly all of Zimbabwe’s maize imports. “However, in the 2025/26 marketing year, there may be some changes, with Zambia regaining its net exporter status as it expects a bumper harvest of 3,66 million tonnes.
This far surpasses Zambia’s maize consumption of 2,8 million tonnes per annum.” South Africa also forecasts a “robust maize harvest” of 15.8 million tonnes, which is 23 percent higher than the previous 2023/24 season’s crop.
“These forecasts are well above South Africa’s annual maize needs of approximately 12 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.” Sihlobo fears that the import ban will temporarily increase the price of maize in the neighbouring country, since competitively priced imports will not be available.
“While we recognise the logic of the Zimbabwean policymakers, we generally prefer minimal interference in agricultural markets, as intervention may disrupt the efficient allocation of scarce resources or functioning of the market.
“We believe that in times of abundant harvests, farmers and agribusinesses must be allowed to export and benefit from the global market. In times of droughts or floods, trade must still be allowed. “Indeed, there may be short-term economic pain for consumers through higher prices in deficit years when imports are needed, but this induces farmers to plant more in the succeeding seasons.”
Zimbabwe’s agriculture sector employs around 70 percent of the population and remains vulnerable to droughts and other extreme weather events exacerbated by climate change, according to an expert quoted by Reuters. —SA Money Daily